Where the ‘truth’ lies

The women protestors of Shaheen Bagh get Rs 500 per day. The rate per protestor is fixed. The Congress party is distributing money to the protestors. The dress code says those taking part in anti-CAA protests in Mumbai have to wear a hijab. JNUSU president Aishe Ghosh has been faking her head injury. (While on that, check out the replies to this tweet to see how deep, and wide, the rot spreads). Oh, and her supposedly broken hand? The sling changes from left to right depending on the position of the camera. Jihadis — read, Muslims — who almost burned down Mangalore city the other day have now placed a live bomb in Mangalore airport. “Sickulars” are silent about the Kali image vandalised in Kolkata. Former JNU students including Kanhaiyya Kumar celebrated the killing of 70 CRPF soldiers in 2010. A Muslim abused minor girls, for which he was stripped and thrashed. Indira Gandhi’s father in law was ‘Yunus Khan’.

All of this is from just one fake news-busting website, Alt News. Almost all of them from the last 48 hours. Several of them either originating from, or heavily amplified by, people with official links to the BJP and fellow organisations. There is even more from within that time frame — I stopped because I was tired.

“Repetition makes things seem more plausible,” says Lynn Hasher, a psychologist at the University of Toronto whose research team first noticed the effect in the 1970s. “And the effect is likely more powerful when people are tired or distracted by other information.”

The illusory truth effect, they call it, and it is the subject of considerable scientific research. And it is not a particularly new phenomenon, right? Repeat a lie often enough and it will be perceived to be true — that was one of the pillars of the Nazi propaganda machine.

I believed, though, that I had assiduously worked towards building a certain immunity. That a rational, cognitive human being, aware of the risk and therefore prone to cross-check everything, was inoculated from the dangers of propaganda. A BBC report on the phenomenon even seemed to bear me out.

What Fazio and colleagues actually found, is that the biggest influence on whether a statement was judged to be true was… whether it actually was true. The repetition effect couldn’t mask the truth. With or without repetition, people were still more likely to believe the actual facts as opposed to the lies.

This shows something fundamental about how we update our beliefs – repetition has a power to make things sound more true, even when we know differently, but it doesn’t over-ride that knowledge.

All of which is to say, if my ear is connected to my brain, then I’ll know a lie when I hear it.

Yesterday, a little something happened that made me go back and do a little more reading on the phenomenon. I stumbled on this pre-print (a scientific study that has not yet been validated by peer review) of a study led by Ghent University.

The study examines the three aspects of cognition that influence how people make judgements about something they come across: (1) Intelligence; (2) The human need to avoid ambiguity and to decide, one way or the other; and, (3) The individual’s cognitive approach, which takes into account that some of us think in rapid, intuitive fashion while others take a slower, more deeply analytical approach.

The paper I linked to above goes into the methodology, sample size, the nature of the experiments conducted, all of that (and if you have the time, I’d suggest you read it, because differentiating between the real and the fake has become the biggest challenge of this “age of information”).

Broadly, though, the findings can be summed up thus: The illusory truth effect is universal. It does not depend on the individual’s cognitive style — which is to say, we are all, all of us, likely to believe repeated information, regardless of how intelligent, how deliberative, we believe ourselves to be.

Thus:

I don’t know why I believed this, when I saw it, but I did. And I, a Keralite born and bred, was outraged. My state has been doing well, thus far, in its collective response to bigotry — we don’t need this, was my first thought.

Acting on the thought, I retweeted a mention of this with copy to the Kerala chief minister, asking that he look into it, and also asking Keralites on my TL to retweet and add to the public pressure. Because, see, this is just wrong, right?

I really should have known better. After all, Shobha Karandlaje’s propensity for gaslighting is no secret — in fact, on one occasion, a rumour she floated as fact, which got picked up and amplified by India Today’s Shiv Aroor, was so egregious I ended up writing a long post on this phenomenon – which, I just realised, is still relevant. Because exactly the same thing happened here.

Karandlaje put out something — which, incidentally, has got 8,400 likes and over 6000 retweets at the time of writing this, thus amplifying the “news” far and wide. With Karandlaje giving it legitimacy, Kerala-based BJP/RSS activists began retransmitting the “news” (which is interesting enough in itself — the local Hindutva outfits in Kerala are so tired of getting their backsides kicked that they now outsource bigotry to neighbouring states, wait for these rumours to gather steam, and then pick it up quoting the outside source). Mainstream media outlets picked up the story and carried it with insinuating headlines. You have to read to the end of the story linked here to realise that it is a he-said, she-said story, not based on fact but on rumour.

It was only later, prompted by the ‘wait a minute’ voice in my mind, that I made a few calls to people (including a cousin who is very active politically and plugged into the state network), who made a few calls to other people, and I finally got an inkling of where the truth lies:

In the Cherukunnu colony of Valanchery in Kerala’s Malappuram district, there is a perennial water crisis thanks to non-functional water pipelines that have not been attended to for over six months. People share water sourced however they can.

One Muslim family in a predominantly Dalit locality has a government-supplied borewell for agricultural use. The family has been diverting some of that water for domestic use, and also sharing this diverted water with seven or eight neighbouring families.

On January 11, the BJP organised a pro-CAA rally in the area, and a handful of young men from the colony, all Dalits, participated. A week later, word went around that the Muslim family, upset over the participation in the pro-CAA rally, had stopped supplying water to those households.

The rumour spread thanks to the assiduous efforts of the state BJP/RSS machinery; it got kicked upstairs to Karandlaje who then weaponised it, and from her it moved into mainstream media.

Meanwhile, the BJP through the medium of Seva Bharati (an RSS social service wing) began supplying water to the affected families, with a lot of fanfare, furthering the victimhood narrative.

What, as nearly as I have been able to make out from my conversations, was this: the state electricity department sent a notice to the Muslim family asking that they desist from using for domestic consumption water from a borewell meant only for agricultural purposes.

On receipt of the notice, the family reached out to their neighbours, to inform them that they would from here on be able to provide only two buckets of water per day.

Like all good lies, the one Karandlaje and others spread rested on tiny grains of truth. (1) A Muslim family had been helping neighbouring Dalit families during a time of water crisis. (2) Some young men from those families had taken part in an anti-CAA rally. (3) A couple of Islamic organisations — which, like every other political outfit, is prone to fish in troubled waters — had talked to the Muslim family about their neighbours’ participation in a pro-CAA rally. (4) The water supply had been curtailed.

Put together in a particular way, though, the story changes; it becomes one of a particular community using any and all means in its power — including denying something as basic as drinking water, OMG! — to those who support the CAA.

There is a coda to this story: The Kerala police have filed an FIR against Karandlaje under IPC Section 153 (A) which relates to promoting enmity between various groups. Karandlaje, backed by BJP leaders including IT cell chief Amit Malviya, are using this to play victim. Meanwhile:

Speaking to Indianexpress.com, he (Kuttipuram sub-inspector Aravindan) said, “We looked into it. What she (Sobha Karandlaje) has alleged is not true. The people in Cherukunnu colony would get water from a borewell as part of a drinking water project of the panchayat. However, the motor was burnt, so water couldn’t be supplied through it for the past one year. Another borewell was installed in the house of a Muslim family, from which the locals had been taking water. That borewell was originally supplied by the Krishi Bhavan through the KSEB, and was to be used strictly for irrigation purposes. So when KSEB opposed supply of water for other uses, the family stopped it.”

“This is what has happened. The episode has no connection to the CAA protests. Following the incident, the district collector, panchayat president and the taluk officer visited the spot and promised to arrange funds to get the old borewell functioning again,” the Sub-Inspector added.

If this seems like a long post about nothing very much, it is. And it isn’t. In and of itself, the incident is minor. But the relative innocuousness of the incident is the point — it is a classic illustration of (a) how widespread the propaganda effort is; (b) how the right wing machinery uses any and all opportunities to sow discord and create enmity; and, (c), just how hard you have to work to get to the true facts — while, in the interim, a hundred other such false stories pop up in several different areas.

What is one to do? What do you do? How do you process “news” these days? I’d love to hear. And the reason I want to hear from others is that increasingly, all emerging signs point to a ruling party with an increasingly genocidal mindset. “Genocide” sounds harsh? Too much of an exaggeration? Over-reach? Remember that Raphael Lemkin, the Polish lawyer who first coined the word ‘genocide’ from the Greek ‘genos‘ (race, tribe) and the Latin ‘cide‘ (killing), defined the word in his seminal work Axis Rule in Occupied Europe thus (emphasis mine):

Genocide does not necessarily mean the immediate destruction of a nation, except when accomplished by mass killings of all members of a nation. It is intended rather to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. The objectives of such a plan would be the disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings, religion, and the economic existence of national groups, and the destruction of the personal security, liberty, health, dignity, and even the lives of the individuals belonging to such groups

In other words, genocide could be a mass killing, but equally result from a death by a thousand social/cultural cuts. And in our country today, the targets are not just the Muslims, but also the Dalits, and other disadvantaged sections. With that in mind, read this:

Now read this entire thread by gay rights activist and columnist Brynn Tannehill. This is where we are now. This is where we are heading. This is why I find myself increasingly reading history. It is also why I’d love to hear from you guys.

Meanwhile, some odds and ends from the last 24 hours:

  • The Union Home Ministry, which had earlier transferred the Davinder Singh case from the J&K police to the NIA, has now transferred the Bhima-Koregaon case also to that agency. The fact that the transfer happened on the same day that NCP chief Sharad Pawar wrote to Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is purely coincidental, right? There are rules governing such transfers, but yet again the GoI decided to invoke extraordinary powers. This is your reminder that the NIA is also in charge of probing the Pulwama attack (which was eleven months ago and counting); that the CRPF, which lost 40 personnel in that attack, had prepared an inquiry report pointing to large scale intelligence lapses; that the MHA denied there was any intelligence lapse and gave charge of the probe to the NIA; that the NIA is yet to submit a report on the outcome of its probe, or to file an FIR. Ask yourself why every issue, every incident with the potential to cause inconvenience to the GoI lands up with the NIA.
  • The Election Commission has banned former AAP member and current BJP candidate for the Delhi elections from campaigning for the next 48 hours. Because, this. Just one more in the escalating instances (here is a Union minister doing his bit) of gaslighting Shaheen Bagh — because? Because what those women have done, are doing in the face of all odds, is inspiring legions around the country, as this list of Shaheen Bagh-style sit ins indicates. And the spread of the Shaheen Bagh model is deeply problematic for this government — and its ideological parent — because a deeply misogynist power is forced to confront the one group it does not know how to talk to, how to handle: women. Determined, defiant women. Hence Ajay Singh Bisht’s recent diatribe: Where are the men? Because Bisht (and Shah, and Modi, and the rest) would by far rather have to confront a protest led by men; against women — with enraged Dalits backing them to the hilt, and Sikhs increasingly forming a vital third element — the RSS/BJP hierarchy is all at sea. And before leaving this point, here is an example of the determination women are bringing to this seemingly unequal contest: Read the story of Ajmeri Bibi. This is what they don’t get, the group that — ironically, paid to tweet — keeps trying to surface allegations that women protestors are being paid to show up.
  • Columbia Journalism Review had a panel discussion on government funding of newspapers. Quote: “To accept funding from government, no matter the alleged safeguards, puts us at risk of mortal conflict of interest. Whom do we serve then? Need I say it? Follow the money.” Read that in connection with this: an RTI inquiry revealed that between 2014-2018, the GoI spent Rs 5,200 crore on advertising. Meaning that Rs 5,200 crore of public money was used by the government for propaganda, and as an economic carrot/stick to coerce media houses. This is a government so cash-starved that it recently cut Rs 3000 crore from the education budget. Then again, who needs education when you can have propaganda instead?
  • A NewsClick article asks — and attempts to answer — the question: Is Karnataka the next Uttar Pradesh? Not quite yet, but we are taking baby strides in that direction. And that is sort of the point, right? Gujarat was the laboratory where the RSS perfected its playbook. This was then exported to Uttar Pradesh, where Ajay Singh Bisht added his own tweaks to the model. Now Karnataka, the BJP’s sole bridgehead in the south. All of this is exactly why this map, of the BJP’s shrinking political footprint, is so important: The less states under the BJP’s control, the less the area the RSS brand of bigotry will become institutionalised in. In passing, remember that in the Kodagu region the police carried out an ID verification drive the other day for no rhyme or reason? 500 people have been detained as a result, and none of us knows what happens to them next.
  • Among the rules governing our elected representatives, there is one that mandates that all MPs who have won election should, within 90 days, furnish full information about all movable and immovable properties he/she and members of the extended family own. An RTI inquiry reveals that only 40 MPs have complied, while 503 have not. Amit Shah is one of those who have not complied — giving a whole new dimension to “hum kagaz nahin dikhayenge“.
  • Speaking of elected representatives and rules, the Allahabad High Court has granted two days parole to rape-accused Bahujan Samaj Party MP Atul Rai, so he can take oath as an elected representative. That tells you all you need to know about the body that makes laws for the rest of us, and for the state of the country today.
  • A Patna college has banned girl students from wearing the burqa. The ban will not stand up to any legal challenge, but that is kind of the point: in various parts of the country, such actions that leech away at basic freedoms have become routine, the intent being to tire you out fighting each individual instance.
  • The government is preparing a law mandating the linking of Aadhar to the Voter ID. Remember that the Supreme Court has ruled that the linking of Aadhar to other services cannot be mandatory. Remember that the government has repeatedly said, even in court, that linking Aadhar is strictly voluntary; that it is needed only if you want to benefit from the GoI’s welfare schemes, or in the case of banks needing to know their customers for the purpose of giving loans, etc. Yet here we are, on the verge of passing another law that prima facie goes against the SC’s rulings — but the law will come, it will pass, it will be challenged, the courts will delay hearings… you know the drill, right? Remember, this involves one of your most fundamental rights as a citizen: the right to vote.
  • Dr Harjit Bhatti was one of those who responded to the January 5 distress calls from JNU. Remember that goons had stopped ambulances and cars carrying doctors from entering the premises, even vandalising an ambulance while the police stood by and did nothing? Remember that Bhatti and other doctors had gone into the university despite all these hurdles, to help? Okay, so they have now filed a case against him. Do you remember the story of one Dr Kafeel Khan? Here we go again.
  • I’ll leave you with this long piece by Somak Ghoshal, on an increasingly aware younger generation. And with this:

Reading List 19/01/2020

  • Uttar Pradesh, about which a longer blogpost needs writing, continues to shock with its arrogant unconcern for either law, or human rights, or even public opinion. One of the many lies — that protestors had fired on cops, leading to retaliatory firing that led to deaths — has been steadily unravelling. Meanwhile a women’s protest at the Clock Tower in Lucknow — which began a couple of days ago with just a handful of women, and which has grown in size ever since — was raided last evening, and the police carried away food and blankets. “Do not spread rumours,” a police statement today says,. “The blankets were seized after due process”. What “due process” allows people to confiscate blankets and food from people peacefully protesting is left to your imagination. Reports also say that water cannons were used on the women protestors. But as always happens in times of crisis, it is the Sikh community that brings a shaft of light to the darkness. This time, by turning up with blankets and food to replace what the police had robbed.
  • Uttar Pradesh, again, showing how intolerance is done. Danseuse Manjari Chaturvedi, who has taken her innovative Sufi-Kathak dance form all over the world, was halted in mid-performance at a UP government function in Lucknow. She was told ‘qawwali nahi chalegi yahan‘.
  • A majority Christian village in Karnataka decided to put up a statue to Jesus. The RSS led a rally opposing it. It turns out that the local Hindus not only have no problem with the proposed statue, they are willing to oppose the RSS if they again bring outsiders to protest.
  • A member of the Niti Aayog wants to know why Kashmiris are fussed about the denial of internet facilities. There is no e-commerce there anyway, he says; Kashmiris do nothing but watch porn. The man is, among other things, a scientist, ex-DRDO.
  • Mukul Kesavan writes of the icons ranging from Ambedkar to Savitribai Phule who have been resurrected by the anti-CAA protestors. But no Gandhi, he points out. “Gandhi’s relative unimportance in the CAA-NRC protests has several reasons. For one, he has been so completely appropriated by the Indian State since his death that he has been reduced to a piety.”
  • Raj Shekhar Sen traces contemporary events to what he calls a “crisis of masculinity” that fuels the Hindutva agenda.
  • JNUSU president Aishe Ghosh says what is happening in the country is nothing short of an attempt by Modi to colonise his own country.
  • Josy Joseph, who from the time he was a colleague at Rediff has made a speciality of the internal security beat, has the most nuanced, readable piece yet on Davinder Singh, the J&K cop arrested while ferrying wanted militants towards Delhi. Militancy, Josy writes, is a multi-faceted business; Davinder is merely a symptom, a manifestation, of a much larger malaise. Alongside the piece, watch this video where Davinder reportedly told the arresting officers not to interfere because it would spoil a plan. The whole thing smells to high heaven — which, come to think of it, explains why the NIA has taken over the investigation, as the surest means of putting a lid on it.
  • On February 27, 2018, my colleague Arati Kumar-Rao and I were at the Wagah Border to receive Paul Salopek, the two-time Pulitzer-winner who was due to enter India on this leg of his Out of Eden Walk. What struck us most forcibly was the incessant traffic of lorries and trucks, speaking to the flourishing cross-border trade between the two countries. While Arati went in to the checkpoint to receive Paul, I whiled away the time at a tea-shop where Sunny, the owner, regaled me with stories of this trade. The tea-shop was just a working base for him; his real occupation was trading in dried fruits which, he said, came from Afghanistan and Pakistan. The goods would be dropped off at the Pakistan side of the checkpost; his people would then pass them through Customs, and his lorries would load up on the India side, and transport the goods to wholesale merchants in Amritsar and elsewhere. Remember, this flourishing trade was happening at the same time border tensions had peaked. Not any more, though — Suhasini Haidar reports that thousands of families have been hit by the trade freeze at the Wagah-Attari border. It’s just another dot that, when connected up, presents a picture of the large-scale economic distress roiling the country. In that connection, and in tandem with my post earlier this morning about Kashmir, read also this piece by Salman Anees Sos on the economic catastrophe that has hit the state.
  • Author Chetan Bhagat, who at times has been pilloried for statements in support of the current regime, has a nicely weighted piece in Times of India about why the whole CAA/NRC/NPR exercise should be shelved immediately.
  • Remember Muhammed bin Tughlaq, whose mis-governance masterstrokes has earned him notoriety in history? The man is a genius compared to Modi’s government — which, recently, panicked as onion prices shot up and public anger rose, bought 35,000 tons of onions from Turkey and Egypt, found that the market has no demand for the bland variants from those countries, and is now trying to sell them off at less than half the purchase price.
  • In context of the recent kerfuffle over Jeff Bezos, Amazon, and the GoI’s apparent issues with “predatory pricing”, read this piece by columnist and podcaster Amit Varma where he argues that the problem is actually with a predatory state.

Double, double, toil and trouble…

Fire burn, and cauldron bubble

2018 is likely to be one long round of electioneering — besides the north-eastern states, assembly elections are due in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan where the BJP is incumbent, and in Karnataka that the BJP is trying to wrest from the ruling Congress party. And it is all shaping up into the sort of witches’ brew that Shakespeare provided the recipe for.

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WTF Just Happened: December 1

#1. After six straight lows, India’s quarterly GDP growth finally trended upwards to 6.3% in the quarter ending September 2017 — a significant uptick from the 5.7% the economy had registered in the previous quarter. The real silver lining is not so much the GDP number itself, but the fact that manufacturing growth accelerated as warehouses restocked after the twin disruptions of demonetization and GST implementation.

Arun Jaitley is hopeful that the impact of those two structural reforms is now “behind us and hopefully, we can look for an upward trajectory in the third and the fourth quarter.” A pragmatic, unexceptional statement from the FM, that contrasts with the chest-thumping of the BJP-leaning sections of the media, led by the usual suspect:

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The U-turn sarkar

May 25, 2014: The then Delhi BJP chief Harsh Vardhan says that the first issue he will take up with the prime minister, if his party won the Lok Sabha polls, was the cause of granting full statehood to the capital city. The move, he said, would solve the problem of multiple authorities; he said the NDA had earlier tabled a relevant bill in Parliament but the successor UPA government had not followed up.

Harsh Vardhan’s predecessor Madan Lal Khurana had made a similar demand in 2003, coincidentally, again, just ahead of assembly elections. “The BJP leadership at the Centre says it is drafting a new Delhi Statehood Bill,” the article points out. “This is something it had done in 1998 as well, a few months before the assembly elections in November that year.”

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WTF Just Happened: November 29

#1. To live where I please, to do as I wish, to believe as I wish, to love as I like — these are my fundamental rights as a free citizen of a free country. The rights to equality, to freedom of thought and expression, to freedom of religion — these are guaranteed by the state. It says so, right here.

And yet, lo these many years after the state was formed and the constitution was formalized, we have the ongoing spectacle of a young woman, an adult, having to go all the way to the Supreme Court to get these rights for herself. ‘I want my freedom,’ she tells the court — and it is telling that she actually has to go to court to ask for it. We have, too, the spectacle of the Supreme Court doling out these rights to her piecemeal, a little bit at a time — while the state, which (constitutionally) guarantees her inalienable rights, is busy opposing, in the apex court, her right to live and to love as she pleases. What country, what century, are we living in, again?

Meanwhile, we have the National Intelligence Agency — which has been systematically weaponized by the ruling party — saying that it has proof Hadiya’s husband is a recruiter for the ISIS.

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